Up For Grabs Now

You can’t help feeling that Arsenal’s summer is going to turn on the next few days.

The possible sale of Emmanuel Adebayor, approached by Manchester City and apparently on his way north, will very likely dictate the order of Mr Wenger’s business at least until pre-season kicks off. The figures quoted are likely to be unreliable, and I’d certainly like to see Ade pulling in a hefty fee, hopefully pushing £30million. £20million is Robbie Keane money, and though Ade certainly isn’t on anyone’s list of beloved Arsenal players right now, his European pedigree alone ought to guarantee a serious figure, especially if they’re going to be paying him anything like the numbers quoted.

People may also start to get a bit jittery about his sale. It’s easy to get carried away over how much you dislike a player when they end the season in poor form and give a series of foolish interviews. Some people have taken this too far, turning him into the solitary scapegoat for another frustrating climax to a season that stuttered, sparked, promised, then collapsed.

But with his exit now looking more and more likely, thoughts turn to what we’d be missing.

His crossbar-busting volley against Tottenham. His ridiculous overhead kick against Villarreal. The marvellous chest-and-smash finish at St James’ Park. These are not the goals of an ordinary footballer.

There’s also the sulking, the shrugging, the offsides and the non-commital strolling – of course. He has seemed to change visibly since Milan’s interest last summer. From the eager, enthusiastic big kid wowed by the Premiership playground, he has turned into a scowling, brooding presence, all heavy knees, trudging feet and hands on hips.

It happens to too many of the players who owe their stardom to Mr Wenger and Arsenal, far too many. Mr Wenger may have a wonderful eye for potential and an astute sense of how to turn it into top class footballers, but even he, it seems, can’t teach loyalty.

Still, he’s not gone yet, and an Ade-Rebirth may be round the corner, awkward as this would be.

And if he goes? We’d need a striker, and a serious goal-grabbing striker at that. The word is Chamakh, which feels for me like a sensible, like-for-like option. But it also feels like we’d probably be weakened overall by gaining the Moroccan at the Togolese’s expense. Less experience of top class football (though the same age at 25) and an inferior goals record. And still a hefty chunk of every second season away in Africa.

Chamakh has a famous work-rate and is a generous team-player. The goals he does score are very often with headers from crosses. Now, you might argue that that would add a much needed dimension to our team, but then is the midfield set up to provide the kind of service he’d need? I’m not so sure.

For me, the big question would have to be how much of a premium Mr Wenger sets on aerial ability. If this is what he’s after, he’ll need another Ade, and Chamakh would do. But then we already have a promising (that’s right), aerially imposing centre forward – Bendtner – who has a better goals ratio and is settled in the squad. Surely it wouldn’t be very Wengerish to bring in an older player of similar profile – or am I conflating the two players’ styles too simplistically?

Personally, I hope Mr Wenger thinks seriously about Klaas-Jan Huntelaar. Ludicrously sidelined by the marquee signing jamboree and seemingly available for around £18m, I can’t think of a more natural goalscorer in Europe, and as the teams with the big wallets seem to follow the headlines and the fashion it looks like he’s without a major suitor. He’s not big, but he’s brilliant in the air and his style of play would complement any of RVP, Eduardo or Bendtner. We couldn’t use him as a target man, but then you could argue that Ade isn’t great in that role either.

I think he’d score a tonne.

As the hour’s tick down towards the January transfer window (the start of which is celebrated around the world with fireworks and dancing, though I may have misunderstood this) and with no matches until Plymouth on Saturday, I thought I’d take a broad look at the transfer market and Arsenal’s position going into it.

I can’t remember a stranger market, nor one where a player’s value was so randomly ascribed. In a good deal, both parties should feel slightly uncomfortable – the buyer that he might have overpaid, and the seller that he might have undersold. What we’ve got right now is a seller’s market where nobody’s quite sure where all that money is coming from. And with Arsenal very much a buying club this January, that’s not good news. It means we’ll have to be pretty cunning to come out in February with a significantly improved squad.

Some good games for Portsmouth won Lassana Diarra a whopping £22million move to Real Madrid. Now, if you believe the Independent, Portsmouth are talking about £24 million for Jermaine Defoe, who moved in the opposite direction for £9 million not that long ago. Somehow if you throw in a goals record at Pompey which was essentially a continuation of his Spurs form when he was getting a game and add in the financial crisis, the player is valued nearly 3 times higher!

If that’s the going rate, what on earth would we need to pay for someone in the class of Ribery, or Aguero? This is only a few months after City bought Robinho for £30 million. How does Defoe plus £6million sound as a fair deal for him?

Klaas Jan-Huntelaar, a top class international striker covetted by all the major clubs in Europe and with Champions’ League experience, moves to Madrid in an initial £17m deal which could rise as high as £23million depending on performance. This seems like a fair price for such a talented player. What’s odd is that the second tier of Premiership clubs are expecting each other to outspend Real Madrid in exchange for inferior quality.

These are the sort of fees Arsene has never spent. In the past only players with international pedigree and good records at top clubs have been able to command these kinds of numbers. Now everyone’s doing it. Defoe’s a good player, but at best you’re probably signing 20 goals a season, for which you must now pay top dollar.

In one sense, I suspect the financial crisis is perversely responsible for this. You might have expected to see good players available for bargain bucks, but that simply hasn’t happened. Taking Defoe as an example, Portsmouth could flog one of their assets and they’d have a bit more money. In the past you’d just bring in a cheaper replacement and trouser the rest. The thing is that once they’ve flogged Defoe they’ve probably increased the risk of relegation quite considerably, and this is where the rub really comes. Mediocre Premiership clubs are now less interested in good deals than they are in avoiding the ruin of relegation at all costs. They are asking for such high prices exactly because they are so risk-averse right now.

This has a curious effect on the valuation of players from clubs like Everton or Villa. Say we tried to sign Arteta. You’d think about £10-£12 million would do the job, but Everton will naturally look for a replacement from a lower club, say Morten Gamst Pedersen. But when they enquire they’ll find Blackburn are charging a much higher premium than they are. So they won’t sell for anything less than a grossly inflated fee.

So where does this leave Arsenal, so evidently in need of ready-made reinforcements?

Exactly where we’ve always been with Arsene, that’s where. The best solution to such a market is simply to scout far and wide and well and early. If we get involved in rat races over average Premiership players we’re just going to end up throwing away money we don’t have, especially if we’re up against Man City (and who aren’t they interested in exactly?)

Sagna, Eduardo, Adebayor, Van Persie. All well-below £10 million and all right out of the top drawer. In the first 3 cases they came with enough experience to make a pretty immediate impact. It’s these sort of off-the-radar players that we need to be bringing in if we are to outperform the market this January and have a realistic tilt at the Champions’ League. What do I want Arsene to find up his magic sleeve? Ideally, another Vidic or Skrtel, relative unknowns bought cheaply who were ready to perform at the highest level at the heart of the defence. What price Vidic now?

Arsene’s said he wants experience and he also said he would look at loan moves. If he follows his established transfer strategy he might need to combine the two and loan in the experience. We may have to settle for someone like Olivier Dacourt. Yesterday I suggested we give Juan Sebastian Veron a six month loan contract, just in case he’s still got it in him (with apologies for all the United stuff on that clip, it made me feel sick too). I know he disappointed at United and Chelsea but they’re very different teams and he could be due a Larsson-esque swansong. Just an idea.

Intrigued, as ever, to know your thoughts on all this.